What to watch for in the week ahead - W/C 23rd Sep
Geopolitical tensions could escalate in any one of the theatres of war around the world
NB - Please note that I am writing this on a Sunday morning with a coffee and another lovely sausage sandwich :-) It is absolutely hammering it down with rain and I will be off to watch Brighton & Hove Albion v Nottingham Forest in the Premier Legague this afternoon before the usual Sunday PM ritual of watching NFL RedZone in the UK. No pressure today because the Jets beat the Patriots on Thursday Night Football!
As always, my hope is that by the time this post goes out that the information involved has not changed significantly. My apologies if it has due to overnight trading in the Asian markets.
Investment Thesis/Gold/Silver
I am not an Independent Financial Advisor so please do not constitute this as financial advice. I would always suggest that if you are looking at gold and silver then you should look at owning the physical metals first.
If you know why you are investing/holding physical metals then these changes in the price should probably NOT put you off your investment thesis.
Events such as rate cuts or other ‘news’ will always alter the daily price - and thus if you are day trading/short term trading then there will likely be some gains in here for you if you are trading the market the right way and managing your risk/reward situation.
Trading strategy is up to you. I can only share what I am doing and why.
Apart from owning physical metals, my thesis is that I know where the markets are going in the long run, so I might as well profit from that. In terms of trading, I am long silver, long natural gas and long Brent Crude.
Gold
Gold finished last week at $2,622. A new All Time High (ATH). Anything higher than this now will be an ATH so I will do my best not to get caught in the trap of saying ATH everytime this happens.
It really is going to be a case of onwards and upwards. That being said, just remember that nothing goes up in a straight line. There will be bumps along the way.
The event that is not being mentioned much in the mainstream media is the BRICS summit in Kazan (Russia) between 22nd - 24th October. Any announcement of an alternative currency system or something that involves something being pegged to gold, could have far reaching effects on the global monetary system! Put those dates in your diary.
Silver
It is a similar story with silver. It had a decent week last week and it is now at the stage where it could go either way and there are no clear indications about what directions that will be.
My gut feeling is that silver has a slight pullback before ripping to the upside. If that is not the case then it will be a case of just going onwards and upwards. Same caveat as above, just remember that nothing goes up in a straight line.
My belief is that the very long term (3 - 5 years) in silver will see triple digits. The short to medium term (12 months) could see as high as $60 but this will need a lot of factors to work in its favour.
Oil
Oil could go in either direction. The US Government will try to manipulate the price as much as possible in the run up to the election. Any one of the current theatres of war could go hotter (just look at Israel, Lebanon etc at the moment) and this could impact the price.
Remember that a complete market meltdown across most sectors will see selloffs as a result. This should always serve as a reminder to place your stop losses if you are trading. If you are not trading and you own physcial metals then price fluctuations should not bother you too much and you should be sleeping quite well at night!
Podcast
Some fantastic episodes coming out this week!! They will be released at 19:00 GMT on Monday (today), Tuesday and Thursday. There might also be one on Wednesday at the same time but am just waiting for the interviewee to clear some red tape his end!
A massive thank you to all paid subscribers, free subscribers and followers. It is truly a blessing to see the channel grow and it is very humbling to know that you have put your trust and faith in CC.
Have a superb week :-)