Welcome to The Contrarian Capitalist Market Wrap for Saturday 5th September 2026.
Major Indices - Weekly Moves
Legend: 🟢 Up | 🟡 Unchanged | 🔴 Down
Polymarket Market of the Week
With NFP printing positively, it seemed to be a case of good news is bad news with regards to rate hike odds jumping to 73% for December 2026. If the Fed is going to hike at all this year, then December would make the most sense.
We must remind ourselves that even though the Fed is ‘not political’, any rate movements in either direction in September or October might be a case of bad optics.
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Non-Farm Payroll Numbers for August 2026 printed +162,000 vs consensus around ~56,000. That’s almost 3x higher than expectations. Unemployment stayed at 4.1%.
The initial reaction in futures markets was to sell. The best explanation I saw about this reaction was from The Kobeissi Letter below.
Donald Trump isn’t impressed by the idea of higher rates. Then again, real estate people are real estate people i.e. they will always want lower rates.
Take the emotion out of all the above and using a basic technical tool, we can see that the US Indices are trending in a certain direction.
