Weekly Open - 12/05/2025 - A blow off top? A bull trap? Bear trap? Where are we at the moment?
Core Inflation/CPI, PPI data this week from USA + China. Major Indices divided last week (some up, some down). DXY & HYG stabilise. VIX cools off and more.
Welcome to the Weekly Open. As usual, my apologies if any data and/or information has changed as a result of Asian/early European trading.
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We spoke briefly on the Weekly Wrap about various theatres of war at the moment. India v Pakistan was mentioned. It now seems as though a ‘ceasefire deal’ has been agreed although the odds of that actually sticking are minimal.
That moves us onto Russia and Ukraine. We can see, thanks to Polymarket, that the odds of a ceasefire before July are also on the decrease and stand at just 32%. You can check out all the various market odds by visiting Polymarket.
The reason for highlighting all these theatres for war is not that we want war but is that should any one of these situations seriously ignite then that likely would have major implications for the rest of the world and for safe haven assets like Gold!
Summary of the major indices last week
DOW JONES = DOWN 73.1 points (0.18%)
NASDAQ = DOWN 55.15 points (0.26%)
S & P 500 = DOWN 28.94 points (0.51%)
FTSE 100 = DOWN 89.1 points (1.03%)
DAX = UP 401.3 points (1.74%)
NIKKEI = UP 268 points (0.72%)
HANG SENG = UP 183 points (0.81%)
This bonus video explores blow off tops/bull + bear traps and where we likely are at the moment.
The video mentioned the recent podcast episode with Steven Hochberg.
You can take advantage of the $11 offer from Elliott Wave International here.
Back to the major indices and we will start with the Dow Jones.
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
S & P 500
NIKKEI (Japan)
HANG SENG (Hong Kong)
DAX (Germany)
FTSE 100
Key Events this coming week include Core and Headline CPI from the USA. On top of that there will be CPI and PPI data from China as well.
Podcast + Posts
The week ahead sees a historical written post on Monday 12th May. We explore The United Kingdom and Gold: 1914 - 2025. This post is designed to be a continuation from ‘The Golden Era - The British Empire & Sound Money between 1816 - 1914’ post penned a little while ago.
The Golden Era - The British Empire & Sound Money between 1816 - 1914
Today’s post is going to dive into the history of Britain and specifically look at the Golden Era between 1816 - 1914. This was a time when the sun never set on the British Empire and, because of sound monetary policy, inflation was relatively non-existent.
2 fantastic podcast guests are lined up for this week. They are
of and of . As usual, these podcasts will be released to paid subscribers first before being released to the general public.If you are yet to subscribe to
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Moving on and let’s have a look at Treasury Yields, DXY, VIX and HYG.
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