Weekly Wrap - 16/05/2025 - Bond Yields are sending a LARGE WARNING signal & Gold drops to circa $3,200

Special offer for this weekend - 40% off an annual subscription!! Plus, Trump's whirlwind tour of the Middle East could be deemed a big success, but bond yields are indicating something big!

Welcome to the Weekly Wrap. In it we have a look at the main headlines from the week gone by as well as a chart deck and other useful information.

NB - I am using a new chart deck this week. Please do let me know if you find these charts easier to read than the previous charts!

Summary of the markets this week

• Gold = DOWN -3.67% ($122.04)

• Silver = DOWN -1.35% ($0.44)

• Platinum = DOWN -0.90% ($9.00)

• Palladium = DOWN -1.56% ($15.20)

• Uranium U308 Futures = UP 1.85% ($1.30)

• Brent Crude = UP 1.78% ($1.13)

• Dow Jones = UP 1,405.36 points (3.41%)

• Nasdaq = UP 1,366.48 points (6.81%)

• S & P 500 = UP 298.47 points (5.27%)

Housekeeping note = The US Major Indices will still get a mention in the Weekly Wrap, yet the charts will be shown (along with DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei) in the Weekly Open newsletter moving forwards.

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Bond Yields send a signal!

The US 10 Year Treasury is sending a major warning signal. It currently sits at circa 4.44% but we need to go back and have a look at what happened in the 1970’s/early 1980’s.

It rose in line with GDP and Inflation and subsequently reached just under 16% in late 1981. This was after a tumultuous 1970’s with numerous wars, oil shocks and an all-round commodity bull run.

The relationship between bond yields/GDP/Inflation is not strictly linear yet the 1970’s/early 1980’s saw a prolonged period of inflation and all sorts of macroeconomic challenges.

It certainly looks like history is rhyming! This is a major signal that we have to keep an eye out for.

Source

Polymarket is also keeping an eye on how high the 10 Year Treasury can go in 2025. At the time of writing there is a 62% chance of 4.6% by year end, 48% chance of 4.8% and 33% chance of 5%.

5% would not be farfetched in my opinion as it does not matter what economic news hits, the underlying fundamentals are shaky and inflation and GDP are likely to increase, thus pushing the yields up. You can keep up to date with that market here.

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Other Main Headlines of Note

• Trump was busy in the Middle East signing off deals. Is he doing deals on purpose WITHOUT Israel?

• USA Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% month-over-month with a 12-month rate unchanged at 2.8%

• USA Core PPI held steady at 3.1% year on year

• Chinese CPI data = -0.1% year on year, unchanged from March

• Chinese Core CPI (excluding food and fuel): Up 0.5% year on year

• Chinese PPI = April 2025 PPI decreased 2.7% year on year. Deflation continues, driven by weak oil and gas prices

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Podcasts & Posts

This week’s written posts (available for all subscribers) looked at:

The United Kingdom and Gold: 1914 - 2025

3 main takeaways from the recent LOCAL elections in England

2 podcasts were recorded this week and a massive thank you to

John Rubino

of

John Rubino's Substack

and also

Chris Marcus

of

Arcadia Economics' Gold & Silver Daily

for taking time out to discuss all things gold, silver, geopolitics, markets and how to survive and thrive from what lays ahead.

ALL podcasts are released to PAID SUBSCRIBERS first. To gain early access to all podcasts before the general public (and other benefits too) then please consider becoming a paid subscriber by using the button below. Below is a SPECIAL OFFER for this weekend only. 40% off of an annual subscription.

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GOLD

With the DXY in slight rebound mode and trade deals happening more frequently, it is no surprise to see gold take a breather this week. This does not mean that it is doom and gloom, but more so that it is taking a breather.

Jesse Colombo

wrote a superb in-depth piece about this recently and I would recommend that you check it out.

Gold ultimately finished the week just above $3,200 (a post market Friday surge enabled this). Seasonally gold does not do too well at this time of year. A somewhat strengthening dollar (in part due to trade agreements being made in principle) has helped to put some pressure on gold.

It still has potential to go lower (circa $3,000 and possibly below that) but this would then likely create another fantastic buying scenario. The only way that gold goes down much further is as part of a broader economic recession.

SILVER

The Gold to Silver ratio is below 100 again. This is still very high, and I’ve written before that there is a potential arbitrage play by utilising the GSR. You can read about that here.

On the week Silver was down 44 cents (-1.35%).

Good news for the GSR ratio. Le’s have a look at that plus Platinum/Palladium Gold Ratios and other commodities charts….