Is the UK heading towards race/civil war? (Post with Contrarian Capitalist and Uranium Investor) Part 1

Part 1 of this 2-part series looks at Immigration, Religion, Race, Thucydides trap and its effects.

We don’t aim for this post to focus on who is right and who is wrong, we aim for this post to be purely about predicting whether a civil war would occur for the purposes of investing/finance/economics and ideally as apolitical as possible.

First of all, we must start by saying that the UK is experiencing increasing levels of civil unrest and division. There are many factors why this is happening, and these will be covered predominantly in the immigration and religion section.

We do not mention the Republic of Ireland in this post, but we have to point out that our Irish brothers and sisters are also experiencing very similar challenges at the moment.

In addition to this, we would like to especially thank

E.M. Burlingame

,

Frank Wright

and

The American Tribune

for inspiring us to produce this 2-part series. We hope that you enjoy reading this and please do share this with your social networks.

The key points that we will cover include:

• Immigration, Religion and Race

• Thucydides Trap and its effects

• Jail shortages

• Natural Resources

• 4 potential ways to benefit from the coming chaos

• Summary

For part 1 (this part) we will focus on:

• Immigration, Religion and Race

• Thucydides trap and its effects

In Part 2 we will focus on:

• Jail shortages

• Natural Resources

• 4 potential ways to benefit from the coming chaos

• Summary

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Immigration, Religion and Race

This is a hot topic across quite a lot of the world at the moment. All noted statistics have come from the Office of National Statistics

The UK has been on a very dark and dangerous path since the Blair government of the 1990’s and particularly post 2020.

Immigration has certainly helped to reshape the UK’s population. In 2023, net migration reached 685,000. Not surprisingly, this is among the highest levels in decades.

The total migration number since 1997 is 18 million!!

Non-UK-born residents now make up 14.3% of the population, roughly 9.4 million people, based on the 2021 Census.

London is the most diverse, with 36.8% of its population born outside the UK.

Rapid demographic change can strain social cohesion, especially when integration lags. Some communities feel their identity and resources are under threat. This could both consciously and subconsciously help to fuel dislike/resentment.

Religious divides add to the tension.

The 2021 Census shows Christianity remains the majority faith at 46.2%, but this is down from 59.4% in 2011.

Meanwhile, the Muslim population has grown to 6.5% (3.9 million people), up from 4.9% in 2011. Other faiths, like Hinduism and Sikhism, are also rising due to immigration.

These shifts are visible in cities like Birmingham, where 26.6% of residents are Muslim.

Differing values, particularly on social issues, can and have created friction.

A very good example of this would be that 43% of Muslims say they support introducing aspects of Sharia law in Britain according to a 2016 Policy Exchange Poll (although in the interests of being fair we should mention that Sharia Law is extremely broad and parts of it is just a tougher punishments for murderers, rapists and thieves) which could mean laws such as those in the Middle East coming into the UK including enforced curfews, enforced niqabs etc.

Even more worrying is the fact that many Muslims likely support the UK becoming a dictatorship as they come from dictatorships themselves and the fact that statistically speaking most terror offences are committed by Muslims.

Because of these reasons it makes logical sense that Britons would not want the Islamification of Britain.

Economic pressures worsen these divides. High immigration strains housing, healthcare, schools and leads to higher tax rates due to increased welfare payments if done in a certain way.

In 2022, the UK had a housing shortage of 4.3 million homes, per the Centre for Policy Studies. Competition for jobs and services often sparks local resentment, especially in deprived areas.

Historical examples warn us what could be coming down the road. Rapid demographic shifts and cultural divides have fuelled conflict elsewhere, like the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s or the India-Pakistan split which remains to this day.

The UK is not there quite yet, but polarized rhetoric on platforms like X, where hashtags like #StopTheBoats trend, shows growing anger amongst residents.

We saw recently the UK having massive protests and some rioting within those protests in Ballymena about mass immigration after a Romanian boy raped a British girl in the UK.

We also saw the UK previously have mass protests and some rioting within these protests after a black man with Al-Qaeda material killed 3 young girls in Southport.

What makes the situation even worse is that the native British population feels they are being treated unfairly with two tier policing due to Islamist rioters not being dealt with as seriously doing the riots and Tommy Robinson (which many believe represents the interests of Working class British natives) being put into solitary confinement for a crime which they believe he either should not have been punished for or should have had a much more lenient punishment (believing solitary confinement was not suited to the crime he allegedly committed.)

Nigel Farage did say he knew something about the Axel Rudakubana case which he wasn’t and still isn’t allowed to say for legal purposes. If new information comes out on this then we may see further mass protests and some rioting within those protests.

What further adds fuel to the fire is that many of the people of the UK feel they are getting gaslit by their own government and the mainstream media.

Below are 2 photos of the aforementioned Axel Rudakubana. The first is the one that MSM were given and plastered all over the news. The second a mugshot before jail. Despite the obvious age difference, the difference between the two photos is why native Brits feel unfairly misled.

We see now that Sir Keir Starmer is opening an inquiry into rape gangs in Rotherham, which may lead to further mass protests and some riots within those protests.

These are the most prominent recent examples of crimes and protests. There are many others as well, but we feel that these examples get the idea across.

The UK must act to prevent division. Integration policies, fair resource allocation, and open dialogue are critical. Without them, the risk of civil conflict will grow in our opinion.

Speaking out about these sorts of challenges can be difficult. Arguably, the most honest talking person on this note is Tommy Robinson (from the native Brit perspective.)

He has spoken up about the subject and ended up in solitary confinement because the UK government view/viewed him as a threat and for spreading disinformation (from the perspective of the native Brits.)

Britain is clamping down on free speech. You don’t have to like Tommy Robinson at all, but when he gets booted out of a restaurant for making others ‘uncomfortable’, then you know the country is going down a very slippery slope.

The religious aspect should not be ignored either.

For example, if all the people entering the UK were of Christian/Eastern Orthodoxy faith, then would we be seeing the same levels of issues? We will never know the answer to that and, as above, the highlighted crimes were committed by people from different faith backgrounds.

Another point to note is that alongside a religion element there is also a racial element with blacks being 4% of the population yet committing 12% of the crimes people question whether black immigrants who are disproportionately likely to be low skilled (excluding Nigerians), violent, supportive of authoritarian regimes and disrespectful of UK culture.

They represent a growing threat in many people’s eyes. A threat that needs to be dealt with through mass deportations of the illegal ones and stopping mass immigration in the first place.

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Thucydides Trap- What is it and why may it be triggered?

The Thucydides trap happens where a rising power threatens an established one, sparking conflict unless managed. We have to be clear and say that this does not always lead to war, as the table below shows.

Source

We think that if (and when) a civil war occurs it will basically be split into the Native Brits vs Non-western immigrants.

We think the reason it will be split amongst these lines is basically a power struggle between the two factions. Religious divides were also highlighted in the section above and that will no doubt play a very large role moving forwards.

We think it will be both a civil war in order to keep increasingly scarce resources (especially housing which is a very big problem particularly in London) and natural gas.

We also think it will be caused by concern about rising crime rates, loss of cultural identity and an increasing vote share amongst those immigrants wanting authoritarian governments. If you were getting a lot of cash from the current government from an overly generous welfare system, wouldn’t you want more of it?

In short, native Brits would want access to increasingly scarce resources, would want to keep crime rates low, want to protect their cultural identity and want to make sure their governments remain democratic and based around western values of freedom.

On the flip side, non-western immigrants will want to also have access to those same scarce resources, view concerns about crime as potentially bigoted, want to protect their own cultural identity too and want an authoritarian dictatorship in some cases.

It is very clear to see that these two sides do not go hand in hand.

This is why the majority of the time throughout history you see this play out with races even within a country you have a civil war. We don’t see why the UK should be different.

In fact, within the last 100 years a third of all countries had a civil war at some point showing its not some crazy idea to put out there but actually the historical norm.

We think a civil war is likely, precisely because we expect both sides to be rational and calculating that a civil war is worth the risk for the reasons previously mentioned.

We also expect there to be emotion driven reasons behind a civil war such as both sides feeling disrespected and we think westerners will feel resentful towards those immigrants.

We think the economic arguments are basically like the classic debate about redistributing wealth with the wealthy not wanting to give away their wealth which they feel they have a right to due to their hard work, risks they took and feeling as though they should not feel forced to give away their wealth whereas the lower wealth group saying money should be redistributed because the wealthy have a lot anyway.

Of course, the main difference being nationalism and nativism leading to people being more loyal to “their own”.

We know that the white population is expected to be a minority at around 2065, and there are many, especially working-class Brits who feel they have nothing to lose considering they can only find a part time job at Tesco anyway, if that especially with retail and hospitality jobs being lost in the last month at 6 times the rate they were being lost during 2008.

An important thing to note here is that the government is unlikely to defer these tensions by “just taxing the rich” because if they are taxed more, they won’t get much more in tax revenues due to the Lauffer curve effect.

Capital Gains Tax revenues are already down due to the current policies from the current government.

Governments may decide to tax more, there is a question about whether this will just lead to them continuing to shoot themselves in the foot.

Maybe they should try cutting welfare and reducing spending? With deficits at 4.8% of GDP in 2024, this is likely to cause a recession in the short term which is the realm in which governments operate.

As a result, we believe tax hikes are more likely although we disagree that this is what should be happening.

In short, the power of the Native Brits will get relatively weaker at the same time that the power of the non-western immigrants rises.

We also know that ethnic based Thucydides trap has led to war most of the time throughout history.

Overall, we think the Thucydides trap on the surface looks like a worsening problem but in some ways could be improving depending on how you look at it.

The next general election is in 2029. If Reform UK win, they are expected to, then they are likely going to put their foot down and take decisive action in order to start to bring things back to some form of normal.

We know this because Nigel Farage was behind Brexit and in his manifesto, he said he will make immigration go to net zero. It will likely be easy to cut immigration too by just not issuing student VISAs to people studying degrees widely considered useless and not giving work VISAs for jobs which are not that important or not highly skilled enough that anybody with low experience can do it.

Nigel Farage may have some logistical problems with the mass deportations side of his manifesto due to limited court capacity and flight capacity, but the net zero immigration is much easier to get done.

Lastly, Thucydides trap may just get delayed if Reform UK does not take adequate steps to address the difference in birth rates between native brits and non-western immigrants such as by funding native brits to have births or promoting the idea at least through social policy.

There is much less support for anything to fix the birth rate crisis, and this could be where the Thucydides trap happens, but anyhow this civil war will be delayed by decades if Thucydides trap is only triggered from Native Brits having lower birth rates.

Part 2 will be released on Friday 20th June 2025.

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