Weekly Wrap - 25/04/2025 - A pullback in gold would be healthy right now

The Weekly Wrap also looks at Trump v Powell, Gold to Silver/Platinum/Palladium ratios, other commodities, the Fed decision in May and much more

Summary of the markets this week

• Gold = DOWN 0.26% ($8.52) after touching $3,500 in spot on 22/04/2025

• Silver = UP 1.64% ($53.50)

• Platinum = DOWN 0.01% ($0.14)

• Palladium = DOWN 2.34% ($22.25)

• Brent Crude = DOWN 1.45% ($0.98)

• Dow Jones = UP 2.26% (886.80 points)

• NASDAQ = UP 6.26% (1,144.95 points)

• S&P 500 = UP 4.34% (229.63 points)

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Podcasts & Palladium

Two fantastic podcasts were released this week.

Matthew Piepenburg

of

VON GREYERZ (English)

discussed in detail why bond yields are incredibly important as well as highlighting the importance of gold and understanding historical trends with regards to geopolitics and monetary systems.

Charles Hugh Smith

of

Charles Hugh Smith's Substack

deep dived into 8 headwinds that are here to stay as well as explaining Kessler events and why the Fed might NOT save the economy.

Brent Johnson of

Santiago Capital

has also provisionally agreed to come onto the podcast. It is currently a case of sorting out a date and time that is suitable.

The first element deep dive was released on Wednesday 23rd April and looked at Palladium. The feedback thus far has been very positive!

This is the first of series of deep dives into various elements. We will explore Uranium and Platinum next week.

There are 7 slight tweaks being made to

The Contrarian Capitalist

and there will be a post about this tomorrow (apologies in advance for disturbing your Saturday).

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Trump v Powell

In the space of the last week, Trump has verbally attacked Jerome Powell (what’s new) before rescinding that verbal attack. I think Scott Bessent had a quiet word with Trump behind the scenes personally.

The other angle of all of this is that this is all a rouse by Trump so that Powell does not ‘have’ to lower rates come May. Previous podcast guest Dave Collum also thinks similar.

And that could explain why there is also now a 91% chance that the Fed does NOT cut rates in May.

Not cutting would probably be the right thing to do at this point in time. This would also allow the White House Office to settle down a bit and also maybe sort out some possible trade deals.

Again, it is notable that Trump has toned down a little bit (especially by his recent standards) and that doing this allows a little bit of breathing room for everyone involved. The current administration cannot afford to have a proper market meltdown otherwise they will encounter major problems both economically and also with the mid-terms in 2026.

Ultimately there will have to be currency printing at extraordinary levels but it seems as though the time for that is not just yet!

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GOLD

This in turn might not be good for gold in the short to medium term. In fact, a pullback here would be very healthy. Pullbacks will always occur in bull markets and when gold touched $3,500 in both spot & futures, then some profit taking took place.

If there is a bit more of a 'settled tone’ within the major indices for the next couple of weeks/months, then I would expect gold to cool off. As previously mentioned, a giant recession would likely send gold down with everything else. That will then create the last buying opportunity for a very long time! I think that we are a long way off from this yet!

Onto the gold chart from the week and we can see that

Daily and Weekly charts below.

A strong gold price in Q1 also led to some very good earnings from the bellwether gold producers, including Newmont Mining (NEM) and Agnico Eagle (AEM).

SILVER

The shenanigans will continue for silver for a very long time! Another Friday and another slam during COMEX hours. Once this cartel has been broken then silver is going to go higher, much higher. The GSR is still very high (just under 100) and if you have not yet my article about the potential arbitrage physical silver play, then please do go and read it.

All of that being said, Silver still finished the week up although you can see the red candle for today. Daily and Weekly charts below.

Now onto the various gold ratios as well as Brent Crude, Nat Gas and the US Major indices…….