Welcome to the Friday 13th February Commodity Wrap.
Here’s to protecting your wealth, defending your freedom, and outsmarting the system.
Commodities were notably choppy this week, with precious metals being up and down throughout, oil markets wrestling with mixed demand signals, and base metals trading without clear direction.
Beneath the surface volatility, however, a major development grabbed attention: a blockbuster offshore drilling merger that signals growing confidence in the longer-term energy cycle. While short-term price action remains unsettled, strategic capital is positioning for what may be a more structural shift in global supply
Legend: 🟢 Up | 🟡 Unchanged | 🔴 Down
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Podcasts/Videos/Posts from this week
Gold, Goats N Guns’ Tom Luongo talked all things Power, Polling, Silver, and why the USA has to win at all costs
And an X post showing that inflation is out of control.
Now let’s dive into the critical commodity insights, the full chart deck, an exclusive bonus audio for paid subscribers, the new short- & long-term traffic light system, and, of course, a quick look at Rob’s sporting teams.
⚡ Critical Commodity Insights: What Moved and Why
Oil M&A
Trader Ferg spoke about Oil/Offshore Drilling on our recent podcast and why they are a Contrarian play at present. A big move was made this week as Transocean is to Acquire Valaris. Key headlines from that M&A are:
Transocean Ltd. has agreed to acquire Valaris Limited in an all-stock transaction valued at about $5.8 billion.
The merged company will control a fleet of 73 drilling rigs (ultra-deepwater, semisubmersibles and modern jackups), expanding global offshore drilling capacity.
The pro forma enterprise value is roughly $17 billion, with Transocean shareholders owning about 53% and Valaris shareholders 47% of the combined entity once the deal closes.
Boards of both companies have approved the merger, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.
This as a major consolidation in the offshore drilling market, strengthening pricing power and positioning the new entity to capture an emerging multi-year offshore upcycle..
A stronger, larger offshore drilling contractor could support future energy supply projects, especially in deepwater and harsh-environment basins where competition is more limited.
Other Oil News
Global oil demand growth for 2026 revised lower by the IEA, with supply set to exceed demand, suggesting ongoing oversupply pressure even as prices have risen since the start of the year. I am not convinced that this is correct at all but that is what the IEA says. If there is a big economic downturn when oil will get whacked.
